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Forecasting Challenges for 2019 Nigerian Election Outcome


ATIKU PDP Rally in Kano

Forecasting models for elections are often based on the total numbers of persons who are registered voters for any particular election for each state, in other words PVC card holders as the case of Nigeria. But with nearly open borders in the North and with the high level of corruption in Nigeria anyone from Niger Republic, Chad, or even Northern Cameroon can enter Nigeria and gain access to PVC cards which entitles them to vote in the current Presidential election in Nigeria.

From all available evidence, it seems like Atiku and the PDP has the momentum currently as they push for the election day. From his latest rally in Kano in Northwest Political zone often described as the Hotbed of Northern Politics, and judging from the sea of heads  at the rally, one can predict with measurably degree of certainty that Atiku has the momentum particularly in the North West Political zone.

Suffices to say that who wins in the North West may likely win this election. Majority may vote for Atiku and PDP in the Southern political zones. APC may deliver the western votes for Buhari but the PDP is not very far behind in the western states. Lagos state is more like neutral ground judging from the large numbers of people from the East residing in Lagos most of them would be voting for the PDP and Atiku.

The PDP would also carry the South South votes and would win with a very large margin in the South East. North Central will go to the PDP considering Middle Belt and their issues with Herdsmen Cattlemen and land issues with the Hausa/Fulani. The North East may go to Buhari and APC from indications. It is likely that who ever carries North Western zone may win this election. The big question nevertheless remains how many illegal aliens would be entering Nigeria to vote?

Written by Okechukwu P. Oranika


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