Democrats Have Huge Favorable Odds in November U.S Midterm Elections

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US Midterm Elections

The Democratic party has huge advantages in the US Midterm Elections coming up on Tuesday November 6, 2018. There are many factors which supports this hypothesis. The first point is that historically the ruling President’s party generally loose seats in the Mid Term elections. One may ask why? Here is the point. Since the history of Mid Term Election began in 1862, the President’s party have lost seats in Midterm elections with the exception of 1934 and 2002, during which the president’s party beat the odds and gained seats.

The second point stems from leadership of Donald Trump. Everybody can agree with me that Trump’s leadership has been loaded and characterized by controversy from one issue to the other. Trump has taken up issues through his tweets with basically all socio-political groups, from members of his ruling Republican party to the opposition Democratic party. The president has attacked men and women. and from students to athletes, Hispanics, Gays and Lesbians, African Americans even Nigeria Americans from Hollywood celebrities to ordinary folks alike. There are more than 10 women who have stepped forward to accuse the president of sexual abuse, and the list is growing by the day.

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The third point is the President’s obsession and abuses of the Media. at any point the president depicts their work as “fake news” with the exception of FOX News(Which Supports Him)  even without providing any evidence to support such language. The President can never win a battle with the News Media which in the final analysis are the ones that tells the story. The United States thrives of free press and media which in fact is enshrined in the US Constitution. No president in the history and annals of the United States History  has sought for war with the US Media to the degree Trump does because most recognize the important function performed by the Media which at times has been described as the 4th Branch of the government in addition to the Congress, Executive and Judiciary arms of the government. I am not saying that all news media reports are totally without any degree of bias, but you can agree that most do their work with some degree of professionalism through research.

The fourth point is the Russian Probe which continues to implicate some of the President’s trusted friends and moving closer to the President himself. The President is very uncomfortable with the Probe and is seeking for ways and means to discredit and possibly fire Deputy FBI Director, Rod Rosenstein  and the Independent Council leader, Robert Mueller. Mind you that all these officials are were described as credible Republicans. The President just released a classified memo the “Nunes Memo” with the aim to discredit the on going Russia investigations. The president had already fired former FBI Director James Comey, and he is very unhappy with the US Attorney General Jeff Sessions because he recused himself from the Russia Probe.

There are political analysts who point to the president’s accomplishments including the buoyant stock market and some economic gains in employment statistics, and other areas but other analysts believe that his disadvantages far outweigh the president’s gains.

Upcoming Midterm Elections US Midterm Elections 2

The upcoming Midterm elections is critical for the Democratic Party to checkmate Republican and Trump policies. More importantly if the Democrats takes control of both Houses in November, it could pave the way for Impeachment of President Trump on several grounds including “obstruction of Justice”

All the 435 Seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for reelection this coming November 6.  Polls show huge and sizable advantage for Democrats in the coming 2018 election. A just conducted POLITICO/Morning Consult Survey points to a double digit lead for Democrats, The question asked in the Survey was “Who do you want to represent you in Congress, Democrats or Republicans”? 44% favor Democrats while 34% said Republicans. The Survey also showed that Democrats and Liberals are as motivated to vote as the Conservatives are. Poor voter turnout has always favored Republicans and High Voter Turnout generally favor Democrats. Election experts predict a very high voter turnout in November as a reaction to Donald Trump’s Controversial leadership.

Recently President Trump hit an all time lows in his approval rating. According to POLITICO/Morning Consult Poll the President’s approval rating stands at 41%. According to the survey, Democrats hold a 15 point lead among female voters, a 3 point lead among male voters, 59 point lead among African Americans, and 27 point lead among Hispanic voters.

34 Senate Seats are up for reelection in 2018. Currently the Senate has 51 Republicans, and 49 Democrats (including 2 Independent senators who vote along with Democrats) The Democratic party only needs 2 seats to take control of the Senate.

The House of Representatives currently have 248 Republicans,( including one Delegate) and 192 Democrats (including 4 delegates and the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico plus one vacancy) Stay tuned for more American Political Analysis.

 

Written by Okechukwu P. Oranika,
Oranika is a Political Analyst, for about 8 years he taught Political Science and Public Administration at Grand Canyon University, Phoenix Arizona and Central Michigan University at Mt. Pleasant Michigan
Email author at [email protected] for Republication Rights or for any questions and comments

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